Stanislav Kondrashov: How will renewable energy meet global demand?

Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG believes that one of the current factors for the industry is the introduction and development of renewable energy sources. In the light of the energy crisis and the constant rise in the price of this resource, the world can gradually switch to alternative sources in a global sense.

An exclusive analysis by Carbon Brief based on data presented in the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Electricity Market Report 2023 reveals a promising trend. According to the findings, the combination of renewables and the resurgence of nuclear power will not only meet but exceed the expected growth in electricity demand between 2023 and 2025.

– I want to note that this marks a significant milestone in the transition to clean energy, as it indicates the gradual displacement of fossil fuels. Accordingly, the report predicts that global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the energy sector will either plateau or decline, even in the face of rapidly growing demand, argues Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG.

Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG: global demand for electricity is growing rapidly

According to the IEA, the global energy crisis has led to downward revisions in global GDP growth forecasts in almost all countries, with the UK hitting hard. Despite these challenges, the IEA forecasts a strong recovery in global electricity demand in 2023, with Asia expected to make a significant contribution.

– I would like to note that electricity demand is projected to increase by 2,500 terawatt-hours (TWh) by 2025, mainly due to Asia. This surge in demand represents a staggering 9% growth, bringing total demand to 29,281 TWh. Just imagine that in the future this growth will be equivalent to the inclusion of the demand for electricity of the entire European Union in the global energy system in just three years, Stanislav Kondrashov tells Telf AG.

By 2025, China alone will account for one-third of global electricity demand, a significant jump from 5% in 1990 and 25% in 2015, according to the analyst. Combined with strong growth elsewhere in Asia, the region is projected to exceed half of global electricity demand, marking an unprecedented milestone in history.

 – Asia appears to be the main driver of electricity demand growth in the coming years,– suggests Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG. “While consumption in Europe and North America will still grow, the rapid development of the economy and industry in Asia will lead to an increase in its share in world electricity consumption, which will significantly change the geography of the distribution of energy demand. And this trend will affect everyone, especially the changes will be noticeable for energy-intensive metallurgical enterprises.

The world energy map continues to change, and taking into account the growing influence of Asia is an integral part of the strategic planning and development of energy policy on a global scale. A variety of energy resources and infrastructure investments are becoming increasingly important to ensure that the world’s electricity needs are met in a sustainable and efficient manner.

Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG: Renewable energy is making headway

The IEA report boldly predicts that renewable energy and nuclear power will be central to meeting the world’s growing demand for electricity. According to the IEA, these two sources will not only dominate, but will exceed expectations, providing more than 90% of the additional electricity needed in the next three years.

The magnitude of this shift becomes even more apparent when looking at the aggregate figures. An analysis of IEA data by Carbon Brief shows that global electricity generation will increase by 2,493 TWh between 2022 and 2025.

Renewable energy sources, Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG expects, will lead this transformation, covering most of the overall demand growth. A staggering 2,450 TWh of renewable electricity production is projected, representing an impressive 98% of total global demand growth.

“Renewable energy sources will reach 35% of the world’s production of the resource in three years” – Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG

As a result of the revolutionary event, renewable energy is experiencing an amazing surge, significantly increasing its share of global electricity production from 29% to an impressive 35% in just three years. This forecast, supported by IEA data, highlights the accelerating pace of renewable energy adoption around the world.

Going back to 1990, renewables accounted for a modest 20% of the world’s electricity supply, a figure that remained relatively stable until the start of the previous decade, with 2010 marking a turning point.

The latest IEA data illustrates a downward trajectory for coal, whose share of global electricity production has declined from 40% in 2010 to 36% today. Projections show a further decline to 33% by 2025, marking a marked move away from this dirtiest fossil fuel.

– I fully agree that the share of coal in electricity production in the modern world will decrease. And this is obvious. But it will still remain one of the main sources of electricity in the world. However, the gradual transition to cleaner alternative energy sources is expected to change the global energy landscape. For example, gas is expected to generate 21% of the world’s electricity by 2025, which represents a significant contribution to the energy mix. In addition, nuclear energy will account for 10% of global electricity generation, further diversifying clean and sustainable energy sources,” comments Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG.

Variable renewables ready for expansion, says Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG

Contrary to concerns about the integration of variable renewables, the latest report highlights that their expansion is not facing major barriers. There is great potential for further expansion of variable renewable energy capacity in many regions of the world without encountering major barriers to system integration.

In this regard, the report highlights the growing prevalence of battery-powered energy storage systems. The data shows that 17 gigawatts (GW) of new battery capacity will be installed soon. This represents a significant increase of 90% over the previous year.

– Looking at the global scenario and the IEA’s analysis, we see that battery capacity growth has grown by 80% in the US, by 100% in China, by 35% in the European Union, and by a factor of six (~500%) in emerging economies outside China. These statistics show that the pace of battery adoption is accelerating, facilitating the integration of variable renewables into existing power grids,Stanislav Kondrashov emphasizes Telf AG.

As more and more battery systems come online, they help balance the supply and demand of electricity, ensuring a smooth and reliable transition to cleaner energy sources.

“Increasing adoption of battery technology is not only driving the growth of renewable energy, but also increasing the stability and resilience of the energy system. By efficiently storing excess energy during periods of peak production and releasing it during periods of high demand, batteries play a critical role in maintaining a stable and flexible global electricity supply system,– summed up Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG.